I was digging through the latest data for the Top 50 U.S. counties by population, and one metric kept standing out: the gap between permits and actual construction. We often treat supply data as a unified front, but I’ve been focusing on the friction between trailing 12-month permits (near-term intent) and the two-year construction pipeline (imminent supply).

We all know a historic amount of multifamily supply is under construction. The more important question is where the cranes are actually concentrated right now. To answer that, I pulled the latest data on the top 20 counties with the most multifamily units scheduled to deliver over the next 24 months. Instead of slicing this into a complex model, I looked at the raw delivery volume to see where developers are making their biggest bets.

Sales volume and price growth are supposed to move together. At least, that’s the common assumption. This week, I wanted to test whether that idea still holds true. It feels intuitive, but mapping the 6-month momentum for the top 50 metros showed me that is not necessarily true. Volume and price often disconnect, and those divergences are where the real story is.