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Is it a red light for the US housing market?

Housing value and rent prices are gradually declining in many regions across the United States. According to Zillow’s monthly housing value and rent data, housing value and rent prices are falling in 34 and 64 MSAs(metropolitan statistical areas) out of 123 MSAs Market Stadium covering from Aug 22 to Oct 22.

The MSAs where housing prices rose the most were Fayetteville, NC, Warner Robins, GA, and Jacksonville, NC, rising by 2.1~2.6%, while the MSAs that fell the most were Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Reno, NV, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, showing a drop of about 3%. Change in rent prices was more dynamic. Hattiesburg, MS, the MSA that rose the most, showed a rise of nearly 5%, while Jacksonville, NC, the region that fell the most, fell 3.3%.

The graph below shows the distribution of MSA based on housing value change (x-axis), and rent prices change (y-axis) between Aug 22 and Oct 22. Major MSAs are labelled.

47 MSAs in red color including Miami, FL, St. Louis, MO, and Chicago, IL are where both housing value and rent prices increased during the recent three months. Housing value increased by 1.15% in Miami, FL, 0.68% in Louis, MO, and 0.30% in Chicago, IL meanwhile rent prices are up 0.62% in Miami, FL, 0.45% in Louis, MO, and 0.05% in Chicago, IL. Despite the price of the surrounding MSA and the drop in the rental, it is noteworthy that the housing value and rent prices in College Station, TX significantly rose (2.00% in value and 3.92% in rent prices) although the value and rent price in surrounding MSA (Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, TX) dropped. and the drop in the rental, it is noteworthy that the rental and value of the College station showed a big increase.

23 MSAs in purple including San Francisco, CA, Seattle, WA, and Phoenix, AZ show a decline in both housing value and rent prices. Many MSAs in the sunbelt area are included in this category. For instance, housing value and rent prices in San Francisco, CA down 1.13% and 0.87%.

In 10 MSAs in blue color such as Boston, MA, Los Angeles, CA, and San Diego, CA, housing values are down but rent prices are up. The number of MSAs is the smallest among the four categories. Los Angeles, CA, and San Diego, CA showed a slight rise in rent prices (almost flat), with a significant drop in housing value. On the other hand, Boston, MA showed a significant rent price increase of about 1% with a decrease in housing value of 0.4%.

42 MSAs in green including New York, NY, Baltimore, MD, and Tampa, FL showed an increase in housing value, but rent prices in these MSAs decreased. In New York, for example, housing value increased by 0.24%, but rent prices fell by 0.82%.

The map below shows which category 123 MSAs covered by Market Stadium belong.

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