Last year, our team identified the top gentrifying cities in the US. Gentrification often signals the socio-economic process wherein higher-income households move into traditionally lower-income neighborhoods. Relatedly, the prediction of gentrification is crucial for not only policymakers and planners but also real estate investment parties. While gentrification is a complex process, it is often explored based on the changes in factors such as the young population, individuals with higher education attainment levels, household income, and housing rent and values.
Advances in data collection and prediction methods allow for the analysis of gentrification patterns in the future. With predicted data on socio-demographics and housing values, our team explored the gentrifying neighborhoods for the next 5 years. While gentrification may be triggered by several external factors such as government policies, development projects, and transit supplies, we predict future gentrifying areas mostly based on assumed changes in the socio-demographics of households. For example, we are unable to address gentrifying areas that may be impacted by a new transit line suggested by the government.
The map below shows an example of gentrifying areas identified for the present and the future. The census tracts colored in light blue are the ones revealed from the current data and the red color indicates areas with a high probability of gentrification in the future. When a census tract has a high possibility of gentrification for both the current and future periods, it is colored purple. We see that most of the gentrifying areas in the future are closely located to the ones that are currently gentrifying.
Top 20 Gentrifying Cities in 2025
Check the top 20 gentrifying cities predicted from our data. You should explore these areas if you want to learn about where the young and high-income population will increase.
1. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
2. El Paso, TX
3. South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
4. Toledo, OH
5. Oklahoma City, OK
6. Fresno, CA
7. Cleveland-Elyria, OH
8. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
9. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
10. Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
11. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
12. Tucson, AZ
13. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
14. Colorado Springs, CO
15. Fort Wayne, IN
16. Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
17. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
18. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
19. Naples-Marco Island, FL
20. Greensboro-High Point, NC
Top 20 Cities with Most Increased Probability
Interested in the cities that are likely more gentrified compared to the current period? Check out the list of top 20 cities below.
1. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
2. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
3. Santa Fe, NM
4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
5. Fort Wayne, IN
6. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
8. Naples-Marco Island, FL
9. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
10. Tucson, AZ
11. El Paso, TX
12. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
13. Tulsa, OK
14. Syracuse, NY
15. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
16. Birmingham-Hoover, AL
17. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
18. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
19. Oklahoma City, OK
20. Cleveland-Elyria, OH
Q & A?
Jay Ha
Head of Urban Research
Doctoral student in Urban Planning at USC
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