source: HousinWire
As interest rates go up, it would be a good time to analyze the mortgage delinquency rate (90+ days) by MSA and County-level.
Market Stadium analyzed the top 20 MSAs/counties with the lowest mortgage delinquency rate for 90+days along with the top 20 MSAs/counties with the highest drop for the past 1,2, and 3 years.
Key Takeaways
Overall
The mortgage delinquency rate (90+ days) stays low. Most MSAs have below 1% which is lower than the average mortgage delinquency rate (90+ days) in 2009, which was at nearly 3%.
MSA level
The lowest mortgage delinquency % (90+ days) - San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
The highest drop of mortgage delinquency % (90+days) last 1,2, and 3 years - Peoria, IL
County level
The lowest mortgage delinquency % (90+ days) - Sumner County, TN
The highest drop of mortgage delinquency % (90+days) last 1,2, and 3 years - Spotsylvania County, VA
Correlation with Mortgage Delinquency % (90+days) and Market Stadium 400+ Factors
The mortgage delinquency has a higher inverted correlation with Market Stadium factors that are related to higher housing value, especially 2,3, and 5+beds, income, safety, and residents with Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services jobs.
Unemployment rate & Vacancy rate have a higher correlation with a delinquency rate.
Below shows the top 20 MSAs for lower mortgage delinquency rate (90+days) in December 2021. MSAs on the west side and some MSAs in the mid-west such as Austin and College Station have a lower mortgage delinquency rate of 90+ days compared to the MSAs on the east side. It explains west side MSAs are relatively stable and strong during this period than east side MSAs.
When it comes to average year-over-year growth for 1,2, and 3 years, the mortgage delinquency rate (90+days) has dropped more in the MSAs within California and Florida. Surprisingly, it has decreased a lot in Peoria, IL, and Knoxville, TN which are both over 35% to 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.
At the county level, mid-west and west side counties generally have lower delinquency rates than east side counties.
Mortgage Delinquency % (90+ days) by County
source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unit: %
In terms of year-over-year growth, Spotsylvania County, VA has the highest decrease (-58.51% YoY growth %).
Mortgage Delinquency rate (90+ days) YoY growth for the past 1,2, and 3 years by County
source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unit: YoY %
The below chart describes a historical mortgage delinquency % (90+days) over the last decade in Spotsylvania County, VA. It spiked to around 6% right after the financial crisis and it has been decreasing to nearly 0.1%.
source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau unit: %
We also conducted a correlation analysis between mortgage delinquency % (90+ days) and factors that Market Stadium provided.
The below table explains the top 20 inverted correlation factors with mortgage delinquency % (90+ days). it has a higher inverted correlation with factors that are related to higher housing value especially 2,3, and 5+beds, income, and safety.
Interestingly, Market Stadium Current Market Score, a market valuation using 30+ latest available factors, has a higher inverted correlation with mortgage delinquency % (90+ days) The result denotes that an area with a higher Market Stadium Current Market Score generally has a lower mortgage delinquency % (90+ days).
In addition to that, an area that has a higher number of residents with Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services jobs has a lower mortgage delinquency % (90+ days). This type of job has a higher correlation (70%+) with high-tech jobs.
Dennis Lee
CEO of Market Stadium
Previous Lionstone Investments Research Team
Market Stadium provides mortgage delinquency rate by County-level along with 400+ factors.
Please 'Book a Demo' if you are interested in exploring more information!
Go to www.marketstadium.com and Hit "Book a Demo"
Send us an Email to dennis@marketstadium.com
Comentarios