
Investing in real estate requires a keen understanding of various factors that contribute to property value and desirability. One such critical factor is the availability and efficiency of public transportation. This article series aims to provide insights into public transport usage and service levels across key urbanized areas in the United States, serving as a valuable resource for real estate investors and developers.
In a previous article(https://www.marketstadium.com/post/the-most-public-transportation-friendly-cities-in-the-us), we analyzed public transportation usage in U.S. cities based on Urbanized Area (UZA) public transportation statistics from April 2023 to March 2024. In this article, we will focus on the supply side of public transportation services by examining Vehicle Revenue Miles (VRM) across various U.S. UZAs. VRM is defined as the total distance traveled by all revenue-generating vehicles in a transit system.
First, we present the top 10 U.S. cities with the highest VRM per capita in the table below. While major metropolitan areas such as New York--Jersey City--Newark, NY-NJ; Washington--Arlington, DC-VA-MD; and San Francisco--Oakland, CA are included, the list also features several mid-sized cities. This indicates that high public transportation supply per capita is not exclusive to the largest urban areas but is also a characteristic of some smaller cities.
Rank | UZA Name | VRM per Capita | Population |
1 | Hanford, CA | 158.87 | 66638 |
2 | Leominster--Fitchburg, MA | 62.99 | 111790 |
3 | San Francisco--Oakland, CA | 46.00 | 3515933 |
4 | New York--Jersey City--Newark, NY--NJ | 44.52 | 19426449 |
5 | Kahului--Wailuku, HI | 41.56 | 57905 |
6 | Washington--Arlington, DC--VA--MD | 39.45 | 5174759 |
7 | Mount Vernon, WA | 38.28 | 66825 |
8 | Seaside--Monterey--Pacific Grove, CA | 37.57 | 123495 |
9 | Wenatchee, WA | 35.95 | 78142 |
10 | Stockton, CA | 34.25 | 414847 |
Interestingly, there is a weak positive correlation between VRM per capita and UZA Population, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.16 and a p-value of 0.007. This indicates a statistically significant but weak correlation. In contrast, the correlation between UPT (Unlinked Passenger Trips) per capita, which shows the level of transit usage per capita, and UZA Population is much stronger at 0.58. This highlights a notable difference between supply and demand dynamics in relation to population size in public transportation.
Next, we investigate whether cities with high public transportation supply also generate corresponding demand and maintain service efficiency. Service efficiency can be evaluated by comparing VRM per capita with UPT per capita. We classified UZAs into four categories based on whether their VRM and UPT per capita values are above or below the median: UPT Low, VRM High; UPT High, VRM Low; Both High; Both Low. The map below shows which category each UZA falls into. This analysis provides insights into the current public transportation-friendliness of cities and predicts the potential for cities to become more public transportation-friendly in the future.
Understanding the relationship between public transportation supply and demand is not only vital for developing efficient transit systems but also has significant implications for real estate investment and urban development. Major metropolitan areas often have higher public transportation supply, but several mid-sized cities also show significant VRM per capita. The weak positive correlation between VRM per capita and UZA Population indicates that factors beyond population size, such as urban planning and policy decisions, are crucial in determining public transportation supply.
Focusing on cities with varying levels of service efficiency provides insights into the characteristics that contribute to successful public transportation systems. This knowledge is invaluable for policymakers and urban planners aiming to enhance public transportation services and develop more sustainable, transit-friendly cities. Moreover, real estate developers and investors can use these insights to identify areas with high growth potential, driven by improved public transportation infrastructure.
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