Build, Deliver, or Delay? A Data-Driven Map of Real Estate Execution Across 50 U.S. Cities

Dennis Lee
Jun 2
2 min read

by Dennis Lee, CEO at Market Stadium

Planning is easy. Delivering is hard.

In a market defined by capital constraints, labor shortages, and shifting demand, not all metros follow through on what they promise.

So we analyzed 50 of the largest U.S. MSAs using percentile scores across three key construction metrics.

All values are percentile scores (0–100) derived from raw counts of:

X-axis: Construction Plans (past 2 years)
Y-axis: Construction Completions (past 2 years)
Bubble Size: Estimated Completions (next 2 years)

Each metro is placed into one of four strategic quadrants based on the relationship between planning, execution, and projected supply.

*All values are percentile scores (0–100) derived from raw counts*

Quadrant Summary: Execution vs. Ambition

1. Q1 – High Plan, High Completion

Markets that plan big—and actually deliver.

New York, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Raleigh, Dallas
→ Confident builders with follow-through. Watch for saturation risk as forward supply ramps up.

2. Q2 – Low Plan, High Completion

Markets that just delivered—but aren’t planning more.

Atlanta, Portland, Nashville, Columbus, Houston
→ Mature cycle or temporary pause? Lower risk near term, but longer-term momentum may slow.

3. Q3 – Low Plan, Low Completion

Markets that plan big—and actually deliver.

Birmingham, Buffalo, Louisville, Memphis, New Orleans
→ May face affordability pressure as demand returns. Potential for value investing in supply-constrained pockets.

4. Q4 – High Plan, Low Completion

Markets with big ambitions, but weak past execution.

Sacramento, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Kansas City, Richmond
→ Risk of under-delivery or approval bottlenecks. Forward supply looks large—but will it materialize?

Investor Takeaway

This isn’t just a heatmap—it’s a market signal.

✅ Want growth with proof? Look at Q1

✅ Seeking safe yield with low volatility? Consider Q2

✅ Hunting for supply-constrained upside? Q3 is your friend

✅ Chasing upside with risk? Q4 demands deeper diligence

Food for Thought

In real estate, it’s not just about how much gets built—it’s about where and how consistently. This quadrant view doesn’t just show data—it reveals intent, reliability, and opportunity.

Markets that talk big but don’t deliver risk supply/demand imbalances. Markets that quietly build and deliver might be the true hidden gems.