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Writer's pictureKen Park

Top Residential Oversupply Markets in the US 2024



In the previous analysis, we measured housing demand and supply using net migration and building permits for MSA cities. This time, we will conduct a more granular analysis to observe significant differences between demand and supply.


The following chart is from the previous analysis and shows the supply and demand trends. The blue line represents the trend for the entire dataset. The further away from the blue line, the greater the difference between demand and supply. In this analysis, we will examine the counties of the top three MSAs with the highest "More Supply" and "More Demand" deviations, focusing on Net Migration and Building Permits.



Below is information on the top 3 "More Demand" MSAs, including a list of counties with their net migration per building permits and a corresponding map.


Table 1. Top More Demand MSAs

Rank

MSA name

Status

1

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

More demand

2

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

More demand

3

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

More demand


Table 2. More Demands Counties' net migration / building permits of the MSAs above

County Name

MSA

Net Migration / Building Permits

New York (Manhattan)

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

11418.000

San Francisco

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

7883.500

Bronx

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

1983.094

Kings (Brooklyn)

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

1810.058

Queens

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

1299.647

Westchester

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

702.824

Putnam

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

637.750

Cook

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

474.429

San Mateo

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

465.294

Alameda

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

413.641

Lake

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

392.054

DuPage

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

389.922

Marin

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

384.356

Nassau

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

384.016

Rockland

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

375.147

Union

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

307.021

Passaic

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

292.586

Essex

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

284.059

Middlesex

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

275.135

Richmond

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

273.748

Somerset

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

245.880

Newton

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

243.333

DeKalb

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

206.200

Kenosha

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

193.704

Contra Costa

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

189.764

Sussex

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

180.923

Hudson

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

175.359

Suffolk

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

171.409

Grundy

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

140.842

Hunterdon

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

129.664

Kane

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

121.158

Pike

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

116.704

Morris

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

115.093

Will

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

113.007

Jasper

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

90.154

Bergen

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

89.720

Porter

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

82.685

Lake

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

72.907

Monmouth

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

62.935

Kendall

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

62.444

McHenry

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

53.192

Ocean

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

34.303




Counties in New York City, excluding Staten Island, dominate the top ranks. Manhattan and San Francisco stand out as outliers with extremely high net migration per building permit ratios, likely due to the limited land available for new construction, leading to higher rents.


Next, we will look at the top 3 "More Supply" MSAs, including a list of counties with their net migration per building permits and a corresponding map.


Table 3. Top 3 More Supply MSAs

Rank

MSA name

Status

1

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

More supply

2

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

More supply

3

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

More supply

Table 4. More Supply Counties' net migration / building permits of the MSAs above

County Name

MSA

Net migration / Building Permit

Waller

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

78.477

Travis

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

76.976

Caldwell

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

45.292

Harris

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

41.891

Galveston

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

38.540

Williamson

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

37.556

Maricopa

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

37.045

Liberty

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

34.291

Brazoria

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

30.534

Pinal

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

24.666

Bastrop

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

24.459

Chambers

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

21.832

Hays

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

20.694

Fort Bend

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

19.710

Austin

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

14.312

Montgomery

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

13.381



Counties in Houston and Austin show high numbers for net migration per building permit, indicating that despite being major cities, they still have room for new construction compared to the national trend, leading to a more balanced supply-demand ratio.

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