Where Are Millennials Driving Multifamily Demand Next?

Dennis Lee
Jun 12
2 min read

by Dennis Lee, CEO at Market Stadium

What if the next hot multifamily market isn’t just about job growth — but about who is moving there, how much they earn, and what they studied?

At Market Stadium, we’ve mapped out three future-facing variables to assess investment potential across the top 50 U.S. MSAs:

X-axis: 3-Year YoY % in Millennial Population Share (%)
Y-axis: 3-Year YoY % in Millennial Median Household Income ($)
Z-axis (bubble size): 3-Year YoY % in Millennials with Bachelor's Degree or Higher (%)

By plotting them in a 3D quadrant space, the results revealed strategic investment opportunities for multifamily developers and investors. Here's a quick summary of each quadrant and its implications:

Quadrant Summary

Q1 – Core Winners

Examples: Miami, Los Angeles, NYC, Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas
Strong growth in population and income; education levels are steady or rising
🔑 Strategy: Ideal for Class A developments and long-term hold in high-demand urban hubs
⚠️ Note: Monitor for cap rate compression and increased competition

Q2 – Emerging Upside

Examples: San Diego, Austin, Sacramento, Portland, Nashville
Moderate or flat population growth, but strong income and education gains
🔑 Strategy: Great fit for Value-Add strategies or repositioning existing stock
Potential for mid-tier Class A or Class B upgrades in less saturated markets

Q3 – Price Down, Sales Down

Examples: Riverside, Louisville, Phoenix, Salt Lake City
Solid population gains but weaker income or educational growth
🔑 Strategy: Focus on Workforce Housing for steady demand with more constrained rent growth
Could serve as cash-flow plays rather than appreciation bets

Q4 – High Plan, Low Completion

Examples: San Jose, Baltimore, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
All three indicators trending flat or negative
🔑 Strategy: Avoid or proceed with high selectivity at the submarket level
Look for turnaround signals, or limit exposure to stabilized core assets only

Notable Highlights

Miami: A top performer across all metrics – solid bet for multifamily growth
Houston: Income growth without population share increase = mixed signals
San Francisco & San Jose: Traditionally high-income MSAs, now seeing stagnation or decline across metrics
Denver & Austin: Educated, high-income Millennial base, but showing signs of population saturation
Riverside: Population surging, but income/education lagging = focus on affordability-driven products

Food for Thought

Are you investing where Millennials are moving toward, or just where they used to be?

The cities winning the next wave of multifamily growth aren’t always the ones grabbing headlines — they’re the ones quietly stacking up long-term fundamentals.

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