Metro Multifamily Outlook: Rent Growth vs. Permitting Momentum (5+ Units)

Dennis Lee
Nov 10
2 min read

Updated: Nov 10

Across the top 50 U.S. metros, multifamily conditions are evolving under the weight of sustained construction pipelines.

While average monthly rent growth (6-month avg) has broadly cooled, multifamily permitting activity (5+ units) — measured as a 6-month rolling average of monthly authorizations — remains elevated in several large metros.

This divergence between rent fundamentals and development pace highlights a late-cycle split: demand growth is moderating, but builders continue to push new supply into the pipeline.

Quadrant Summary

🔴 Q1 — High Permits / High Rent Growth (Late-Cycle Expansion)

Metros sustaining rent gains despite elevated multifamily permitting (5+ units).

Demand remains resilient, but the window before oversupply closes is narrowing.

Examples: New York (+0.24%), Los Angeles (+0.23%), San Francisco (+0.27%), Seattle (+0.52%), Riverside (+0.54%), Richmond (+0.57%), Orlando (+0.08%)
Market View: Healthy absorption and job growth continue to support rents even as pipelines remain active.

🟢 Q2 — Low Permits / High Rent Growth (Opportunity Zone)

Markets with tight new supply but improving rent performance—typically signaling early recovery.

Examples: Providence (+0.41%), Pittsburgh (+0.94%), Hartford (+1.37%), San Jose (+0.91%), Cincinnati (+0.37%), Buffalo (+0.50%).
Market View: Low permitting and accelerating rent growth suggest undersupplied dynamics—often a prime entry point for acquisitions or pre-development.

🟠 Q3 — Low Permits / Low Rent Growth (Cooling / Correction Phase)

Metros showing soft rents and limited new multifamily starts.

Developers are cautious, and leasing momentum has slowed.

Examples: St. Louis (–0.82%), Memphis (–1.43%), Oklahoma City (–0.92%), Austin (–0.64%), Salt Lake City (–0.32%), Louisville (–0.61%).
Market View: Expect muted activity through mid-2025. Stability will depend on job trends and absorption in existing stock.

🔵 Q4 — High Permits / Low Rent Growth (Oversupply Risk)

Markets where multifamily permits (5+ units) remain high but rent growth is turning negative.

Examples: Dallas (–0.24%), Houston (–0.45%), Miami (–0.38%), Phoenix (–0.37%), Tampa (–0.41%), Raleigh (–0.25%).
Market View: Persistent construction pipelines are creating pressure on lease-ups and rent concessions—signaling late-cycle supply risk.