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Where Is Multifamily Rent Truly Rising?



Multifamily Rent: 1-Year MoM % Average & Trend Direction

Over the past 12 months, we tracked multifamily rent changes across 20 major U.S. metros.

But instead of just asking how much rents have changed, we dug deeper:

📉 Are rents still rising — or just coasting on past gains?

Two Lenses, One Goal: Identify Real Momentum

To assess real momentum, we combined:

  1. 📈 1-Year Average MoM % Change

    → How each market performed on average across the past 12 months

    → Used for ranking metros


  2. 📉 Trend Direction (Linear Regression on MoM %)

    → Captures the trajectory of rent change — whether it’s rising, flat, or falling

    → Visualized via color:

    • 🟦 Increasing

    • 🟧 Moderate

    • 🟥 Decreasing

🔁 Same average, different momentum — and that’s what matters.

Key Insights

✅ 1. High Growth Doesn’t Always Mean Upward Trend

  • Washington DC had the highest 1-year rent growth (+0.30%), but its trend is decreasing

    → Suggests early-year gains are now tapering off


✅ 2. True Momentum: Boston & San Francisco

  • Despite mid-range average growth, both metros are trending upward

    → Possible signs of renewed demand or recovery from earlier softening


✅ 3. Stable Plays: Philadelphia, Seattle, Tampa

  • Showed flat or slightly positive growth, classified as Moderate

    → May appeal to yield-focused investors seeking lower volatility


🚨 4. Markets to Watch: Dallas, Phoenix, Denver

  • These metros are facing both declining trends and below-average growth

    → Possible oversupply, tenant softness, or cooling demand




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Dennis Lee

CEO at Market Stadium

Prev. Lionstone Investments Research Team



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