The 24-Month Wave: Where is the Multifamily Pipeline Actually Landing?

Dennis Lee
6 days ago
2 min read

Updated: 30 minutes ago

We all know a historic amount of multifamily supply is under construction.

The more important question is where the cranes are actually concentrated right now.

To answer that, I pulled the latest data on the top 20 counties with the most multifamily units scheduled to deliver over the next 24 months. Instead of slicing this into a complex model, I looked at the raw delivery volume to see where developers are making their biggest bets.

What shows up is a much more concentrated story than many expect.

Below is how the top 20 counties break down based on the incoming pipeline:

Table Summary

🏗️ The Undeniable Heavyweights (Max Volume)

These counties aren't just building; they are delivering massive, market-shifting unit counts over the next two years, with the top tier breaking the 20,000-unit threshold. The sheer volume here will test local absorption rates.

Key Markets: Miami-Dade County, FL (36,004 units), Maricopa County, AZ (21,210 units), Mecklenburg County, NC (20,801 units), Los Angeles County, CA (20,791 units)

🤠 The Texas Concentration (Regional Dominance)

Texas completely dominates the pipeline. Out of the top 20 counties nationally, six are located in the Lone Star State. This reflects a massive, ongoing bet by developers on Texas's population and job growth.

Key Markets: Harris County (17,889 units), Travis County (14,596 units), Dallas County (13,703 units), Collin County (12,336 units), Tarrant County (11,867 units), Bexar County (10,651 units)

🏙️ Core Urban Density (Major Markets)

These are dense, traditional coastal and Midwest hubs. While they make the top 20 purely due to their massive scale, this new supply will likely be absorbed differently than in sprawling suburban markets.

Key Markets: Hudson County, NJ (16,809 units), King County, WA (13,139 units), San Diego County, CA (12,978 units), Kings County, NY (12,110 units), Cook County, IL (11,123 units)

☀️ Sunbelt & Heartland Growth Nodes

This group captures the continued development momentum in fast-growing secondary markets and key regional hubs across the Sunbelt and Midwest.

Key Markets: Jefferson County, KY (18,418 units), Wake County, NC (15,107 units), Franklin County, OH (13,656 units), Orange County, FL (11,498 units), Broward County, FL (9,472 units)

Takeaway

Miami's Massive Lead: Miami-Dade is in a league of its own, expecting over 36,000 units in the next two years—nearly 15,000 more than the second-place market. That level of supply shock will heavily dictate pricing power.
The DFW Squeeze: With Dallas, Tarrant, and Collin counties all sitting in the top 20, the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA alone is staring down a hyper-competitive 24 months. Expect heavy lease-up concessions in these zones as property managers battle to fill units.
The Non-Coastal Push: While major coastal nodes like Los Angeles and the NYC metro (Kings/Hudson) are present, the undeniable center of gravity for new development remains squarely in the Sunbelt and emerging Midwest nodes (like Columbus and Louisville).