The 24-Month Wave: Where is the Multifamily Pipeline Actually Landing?

Dennis Lee
4 minutes ago
2 min read

We all know a historic amount of multifamily supply is under construction.

The more important question is where the cranes are actually concentrated right now.

To answer that, I pulled the latest data on the top 20 counties with the most multifamily units scheduled to deliver over the next 24 months. Instead of slicing this into a complex model, I looked at the raw delivery volume to see where developers are making their biggest bets.

What shows up is a much more concentrated story than many expect.

Below is how the top 20 counties break down based on the incoming pipeline:

Table Summary

🔴 High Rent, High Growth: The Powerhouses

These heavyweight markets are defying affordability limits. Despite already steep rents, demand remains incredibly resilient, pushing prices even higher.

Key Markets: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Riverside, San Diego, San Jose, Portland, Orlando, Virginia Beach, Salt Lake City, Baltimore, Minneapolis.

🟠 Low Rent, High Growth: Value Momentum

This is today's opportunity zone. Rents remain below the national average, yet they are seeing serious upward momentum. Both renters and investors are flocking here for better value and space.

Key Markets: Houston, Detroit, St. Louis, Charlotte, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Raleigh, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Buffalo.

🟢 Low Rent, Low Growth: The Quiet Zone

Steady, stable, and drama free. These metros are bypassing the aggressive rent hikes and extreme volatility seen in other regions, offering a highly predictable environment.

Key Markets: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Austin, Las Vegas, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Milwaukee, Richmond, Memphis, New Orleans, Birmingham.

🔵 High Rent, Low Growth: Cooling Premiums

Proceed with caution. Rents in these metros have hit their ceiling, causing growth to stall or even turn negative. Owners are now facing stiffer competition to fill vacancies as tenants reach their limits.

Key Markets: Chicago, Dallas, Washington, Miami, Phoenix, Boston, Seattle, Tampa, Denver, Sacramento, Nashville, Providence, Hartford.

Summary

The single family rental landscape is definitely shifting. Pandemic era darlings like Miami, Austin, and Dallas are clearly cooling down with stagnant or declining rents. On the flip side, major coastal hubs in New York and California are proving their staying power with continued growth. Meanwhile, value seekers are quietly pivoting toward secondary markets in the Midwest and Sunbelt, where affordability still leaves plenty of room for upside.

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