The 6-Month Shift: Which Metros Are Gaining Momentum?

Dennis Lee
16 hours ago
2 min read

Sales volume and price growth are supposed to move together. At least, that’s the common assumption.

This week, I wanted to test whether that idea still holds true.

It feels intuitive, but mapping the 6-month momentum for the top 50 metros showed me that is not necessarily true. Volume and price often disconnect, and those divergences are where the real story is.

I pulled the latest numbers to see how the top 50 metros shifted over the last half of 2025. Instead of just looking at total volume, I looked at the 6-month growth trend to identify where the real momentum is and mapped the changes into four quadrants.

I mapped the changes into four quadrants:

y-axis: Growth in Sold Units (Volume Momentum)
x-axis: Growth in Sales Metrics (Price/Performance Momentum)

Here is how the markets moved as we closed out the year:

Quadrant Summary

🔴 High Rent, High Growth: The Powerhouses

These heavyweight markets are defying affordability limits. Despite already steep rents, demand remains incredibly resilient, pushing prices even higher.

Key Markets: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Riverside, San Diego, San Jose, Portland, Orlando, Virginia Beach, Salt Lake City, Baltimore, Minneapolis.

🟠 Low Rent, High Growth: Value Momentum

This is today's opportunity zone. Rents remain below the national average, yet they are seeing serious upward momentum. Both renters and investors are flocking here for better value and space.

Key Markets: Houston, Detroit, St. Louis, Charlotte, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Raleigh, Oklahoma City, Louisville, Buffalo.

🟢 Low Rent, Low Growth: The Quiet Zone

Steady, stable, and drama free. These metros are bypassing the aggressive rent hikes and extreme volatility seen in other regions, offering a highly predictable environment.

Key Markets: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Austin, Las Vegas, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Milwaukee, Richmond, Memphis, New Orleans, Birmingham.

🔵 High Rent, Low Growth: Cooling Premiums

Proceed with caution. Rents in these metros have hit their ceiling, causing growth to stall or even turn negative. Owners are now facing stiffer competition to fill vacancies as tenants reach their limits.

Key Markets: Chicago, Dallas, Washington, Miami, Phoenix, Boston, Seattle, Tampa, Denver, Sacramento, Nashville, Providence, Hartford.

Summary

The single family rental landscape is definitely shifting. Pandemic era darlings like Miami, Austin, and Dallas are clearly cooling down with stagnant or declining rents. On the flip side, major coastal hubs in New York and California are proving their staying power with continued growth. Meanwhile, value seekers are quietly pivoting toward secondary markets in the Midwest and Sunbelt, where affordability still leaves plenty of room for upside.

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