The 6-Month Shift: Which Metros Are Gaining Momentum?

Dennis Lee
6 days ago
3 min read

Updated: 30 minutes ago

Sales volume and price growth are supposed to move together. At least, that’s the common assumption.

This week, I wanted to test whether that idea still holds true.

It feels intuitive, but mapping the 6-month momentum for the top 50 metros showed me that is not necessarily true. Volume and price often disconnect, and those divergences are where the real story is.

I pulled the latest numbers to see how the top 50 metros shifted over the last half of 2025. Instead of just looking at total volume, I looked at the 6-month growth trend to identify where the real momentum is and mapped the changes into four quadrants.

I mapped the changes into four quadrants:

y-axis: Growth in Sold Units (Volume Momentum)
x-axis: Growth in Sales Metrics (Price/Performance Momentum)

Here is how the markets moved as we closed out the year:

Quadrant Summary

🔴 Q1: Gaining Momentum (High Sales Growth + High Volume Growth)

The Accelerators. These markets saw growth in both pricing metrics and transaction volume over the last 6 months. It’s essentially a "Rust Belt Renaissance" combined with select affordable pockets.

Key Markets: New York, Philadelphia, Houston, San Antonio, Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Buffalo, Hartford, Providence, Louisville, Salt Lake City

🟠 Q2: Volume Pickup (Low Sales Growth + High Volume Growth)

Liquidity Returning. Transaction volume has grown nicely over the last 6 months, even if sales price metrics remained relatively flat or softer compared to the leaders. This often signals a market finding its floor and bringing buyers back in.

Key Markets: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Austin, Minneapolis, Sacramento, Portland, Kansas City, Baltimore, Memphis

🟢 Q3: Cooling Down (Low Sales Growth + Low Volume Growth)

Key Markets: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Austin, Minneapolis, Sacramento, Portland, Kansas City, Baltimore, Memphis

🔵 Q4: Tight & Sticky (High Sales Growth + Low Volume Growth)

Proceed with caution. Rents in these metros have hit their ceiling, causing growth to stall or even turn negative. Owners are now facing stiffer competition to fill vacancies as tenants reach their limits.

Key Markets: Chicago, Dallas, Washington, Miami, Phoenix, Boston, Seattle, Tampa, Denver, Sacramento, Nashville, Providence, Hartford.

Takeaway

The "Affordability Shift" is Real: The markets with the strongest dual momentum (Q1) are largely in the Midwest and Northeast (Cleveland, Detroit, Philly). Money seems to be chasing value and yield rather than speculation right now.
Texas is Fragmented: It’s fascinating to see the split within the Lone Star State over the last 6 months. Houston and San Antonio are accelerating (Q1), while Austin is seeing volume return without the price heat (Q2), and Dallas has noticeably cooled (Q3).
Sunbelt Stagnation: The classic "hot" markets like Miami, Tampa, and Phoenix (Q4) are seeing volume drop off. Prices are holding, but the transaction velocity we saw earlier in the year has stalled.