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Hidden Spots in U.S. Housing Supply — Markets Quiet in the Past, But Heating Up Fast



Some markets build steadily. Others stay quiet—until they don’t.

 

We analyzed 50 large U.S. counties based on multifamily construction activity, and found some striking patterns — and some surprising Hidden Spots:


  • 📉 X-axis: Percentile score based on past 2-year multifamily construction completions (unit count)

  • 📈 Y-axis: Percentile score based on estimated multifamily construction completions over the next 2 years


In short, this map tells us how much got built recently — and how much is expected to get built soon.

These Hidden Spots are counties where:

✅ Future supply is in the top 40% (Y-axis percentile score ≥ 60)

✅ But past 2-year supply is in the bottom 60% (X-axis percentile score ≤ 60)


In short — quiet yesterday, booming tomorrow.


🔍 Examples of Hidden Spots:

  • Tarrant County, TX (Q2)

  • Orange County, CA (Q2)

  • Fairfax County, VA (Q2)

  • Collin County, TX (Q1)

  • New York County, NY (Manhattan) (Q2)


These counties don't fit a single quadrant — some are in Q2, others in Q1. But what unites them is a sharp shift in trajectory: areas that were once overlooked now show signs of breakout growth.


Quadrant Overview (Supply Momentum)

Q1 – Sustained Growth

  • High past & high future supply

  • Examples: Miami-Dade (FL), Maricopa (AZ), Los Angeles (CA)

  • 🔄 Stable, mature, but possibly saturated


Q2 – Emerging Momentum

  • Low past, high future

  • Examples: Tarrant (TX), Orange (CA), New York (NY)

  • ⚡ Heating up — many overlap with Hidden Spots


Q3 – Low Supply

  • Low past and future

  • Examples: Riverside (CA), Suffolk (NY), Nassau (NY)

  • 🛑 Supply constraints may persist


Q4 – Cooling Off

  • High past, low future

  • Examples: Cook (IL), Duval (FL), Philadelphia (PA)

  • 📉 Cycle correction or oversupply hangover


💡 Want to spot the next breakout market?

Start by finding the quiet places that are suddenly getting loud.




Food for Thought

See what others are missing. Spot the quiet counties getting loud.




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Dennis Lee

CEO at Market Stadium

Prev. Lionstone Investments Research Team



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