Hidden Spots in U.S. Housing Supply — Markets Quiet in the Past, But Heating Up Fast
- Dennis Lee
- 11 hours ago
- 2 min read

by Dennis Lee, CEO at Market Stadium
Some markets build steadily. Others stay quiet—until they don’t.
We analyzed 50 large U.S. counties based on multifamily construction activity, and found some striking patterns — and some surprising Hidden Spots:
📉 X-axis: Percentile score based on past 2-year multifamily construction completions (unit count)
📈 Y-axis: Percentile score based on estimated multifamily construction completions over the next 2 years
In short, this map tells us how much got built recently — and how much is expected to get built soon.

These Hidden Spots are counties where:
✅ Future supply is in the top 40% (Y-axis percentile score ≥ 60)
✅ But past 2-year supply is in the bottom 60% (X-axis percentile score ≤ 60)
In short — quiet yesterday, booming tomorrow.
🔍 Examples of Hidden Spots:
Tarrant County, TX (Q2)
Orange County, CA (Q2)
Fairfax County, VA (Q2)
Collin County, TX (Q1)
New York County, NY (Manhattan) (Q2)
These counties don't fit a single quadrant — some are in Q2, others in Q1. But what unites them is a sharp shift in trajectory: areas that were once overlooked now show signs of breakout growth.
Quadrant Overview (Supply Momentum)
Q1 – Sustained Growth
High past & high future supply
Examples: Miami-Dade (FL), Maricopa (AZ), Los Angeles (CA)
🔄 Stable, mature, but possibly saturated
Q2 – Emerging Momentum
Low past, high future
Examples: Tarrant (TX), Orange (CA), New York (NY)
⚡ Heating up — many overlap with Hidden Spots
Q3 – Low Supply
Low past and future
Examples: Riverside (CA), Suffolk (NY), Nassau (NY)
🛑 Supply constraints may persist
Q4 – Cooling Off
High past, low future
Examples: Cook (IL), Duval (FL), Philadelphia (PA)
📉 Cycle correction or oversupply hangover
💡 Want to spot the next breakout market?
Start by finding the quiet places that are suddenly getting loud.

Food for Thought
See what others are missing. Spot the quiet counties getting loud.
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Dennis Lee
CEO at Market Stadium
Prev. Lionstone Investments Research Team
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