Market Snapshot: Where Supply Meets Demand

Dennis Lee
10 hours ago
2 min read

Headlines keep asking whether multifamily is “overbuilt” or “undersupplied.”The real answer depends on where supply and demand are actually meeting.

So this week, I mapped the top 50 metros to see where the market actually stands right now. By plotting recent multifamily transaction volume against the upcoming multifamily construction pipeline, four distinct stories emerged.

Here is the breakdown:.

Quadrant Summary

🔴 1. The Powerhouses (High Sales / High Supply)

These are the heavyweights. Deal flow has remained strong despite the economic slowdown, and developers are still building aggressively to meet demand.

Key Metros: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix, Seattle, Boston, Nashville.

🟠 2. The Supply Wave (Low Sales / High Supply)

The risk zone. Sales activity has cooled off significantly, but the construction pipeline is still massive. These markets will likely face the stiffest competition for tenants in the near term.

Key Metros: Dallas, Houston, Austin, Orlando, Raleigh, Columbus, Richmond.

🟢 3. The Quiet Zone (Low Sales / Low Supply)

Steady and stable. Both transaction volume and new construction are modest, meaning these markets are avoiding the volatility seen elsewhere.

Key Metros: Las Vegas, San Antonio, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Cleveland.

🔵 4. Supply Constrained (High Sales / Low Supply)

A potential sweet spot for owners. Sales activity has been resilient, but there is very little new inventory coming online, which could keep vacancy rates tight.

Key Metros: Riverside, San Jose, St. Louis, Sacramento, Virginia Beach, Milwaukee.

The Bottom Line

The data confirms the "Sunbelt Supply" concern, markets like Dallas and Austin are building heavily despite lower sales velocity. In contrast, high-barrier markets like Riverside and San Jose are showing strong fundamentals simply because new supply is so limited.

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