PTI Growth vs. Mortgage Delinquency: Where Affordability Stress is Emerging

Dennis Lee
6 days ago
2 min read

To translate the national affordability debate into local signals, we compared future affordability pressure with recent borrower stress across the top 50 metros.

We measured PTI (Price-to-Income) growth as a 3-year CAGR from 2025 to 2028, and paired it with the 6-month change in 30–89 day mortgage delinquency (Jun→Dec 2024). Both metrics were converted into percentile scores, allowing metros to be grouped into four clear quadrants.

Quadrant Summary

🔴 Q1 — High PTI Growth / High Delinquency Growth

Affordability deteriorating + stress rising

These markets show the strongest “gap widening” dynamics: price-to-income is projected to worsen quickly, and delinquency is already accelerating.
Examples: Austin, Dallas, Houston, Detroit, San Diego, San Jose

🟠 Q2 — Low PTI Growth / High Delinquency Growth

Stress-led warning

PTI growth is more moderate, but delinquency is rising—suggesting pressures may be coming from the labor market, debt burden, or localized shocks (not just affordability).
Examples: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Boston, Raleigh

🟢 Q3 — Low PTI Growth / Low Delinquency Growth

Stabilizing and resilient

Affordability pressure is building more slowly and borrower stress remains contained—typically the most “defensive” profile.
Examples: New York, Philadelphia, Miami, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, Milwaukee

🔵 Q4 — High PTI Growth / Low Delinquency Growth

Affordability risk building, stress not visible yet

PTI is projected to worsen quickly, but delinquency hasn’t moved much—often a “late-cycle” risk bucket if affordability keeps tightening.
Examples: Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville

Key Takeaways

National headlines argue that housing won’t become meaningfully affordable without extreme shifts. At the metro level, we see the market already splitting into two groups: metros where the affordability gap is widening and stress is rising (Q1), and metros where the gap is widening but stress hasn’t surfaced yet (Q4). Q3 remains the most balanced, while Q2 merits attention because delinquency is rising even without the fastest PTI growth.