Where Construction Starts and Rents Are Moving in America’s Biggest Cities

Dennis Lee
Aug 25
2 min read

by Dennis Lee, CEO at Market Stadium

Real estate markets are always a balancing act between what’s being built and what people are willing to pay. When construction cranes rise and rents shift, they reveal the underlying story of supply, demand, and investor confidence.

At Market Stadium we segmented the 50 largest MSAs using two simple measures:

X-axis (Construction): The average monthly change in construction starts over the past year (using 3-month rolling totals)
Y-axis (Rents): The average month-to-month rent growth over the past year

Quadrant Breakdown

🟦 Q1: More Starts + Rising Rents

Definition: On average, construction starts are trending up and rents are climbing.
Examples: Miami · San Diego · Sacramento · Richmond
Insight: Demand momentum is strong enough to justify new projects. Positive outlook, but monitor delivery pipeline for overbuild risk.

🟩 Q2: Fewer Starts + Rising Rents

Definition: Developers are cautious, but tenants keep paying more.
Examples: New York · Washington DC · Philadelphia · Memphis
Insight: Limited new supply supports rent growth. Landlord-favored dynamics.

🟥 Q3: Fewer Starts + Falling Rents

Definition: Construction starts are declining and rents are also soft.
Examples: Los Angeles · Dallas–Fort Worth · Denver · Seattle
Insight: Weak demand + cautious supply = short-term headwinds. Conservative positioning advised.

⬛ Q4: More Starts + Falling Rents

Definition: Developers are still breaking ground even though rents are slipping.
Examples: Chicago · Phoenix · Austin · Columbus (OH)
Insight: Supply outpaces demand momentum. Vacancy risk and concessions likely.