Where Supply Is Tight, Demand Is Strong, and Value Is Rising

Dennis Lee
14 minutes ago
2 min read

by Dennis Lee, CEO at Market Stadium

New quadrant analysis reveals the metros with the strongest growth setups—and those at risk of overbuilding.

We analyzed 50 of the largest U.S. MSAs using percentile scores for:

X-axis (Demand Potential): Net Migration Forecast (2025–2027)
Y-axis (Supply): Construction Pipeline (Next 2 Years)
Bubble Size (Growth Potential): Housing Value Forecast (2025–2027)

Each MSA is placed into one of four quadrants based on the relationship between supply and demand potential.

The result? A quadrant-based view of metro-level market dynamics, showing how future supply and demand are likely to interact—and where real estate opportunity is most asymmetric. Check summary below:

*All values are percentile scores (0–100) derived from raw data*

Quadrant Standout Summary

1. Q1 – High Demand Potential, High Supply

→ Austin, Houston, Seattle, San Antonio, San Diego

→ Fast-growing metros proactively building to absorb future population inflows.

2. Q2 – Low Demand Potential, High Supply

→ New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Philadelphia, Miami

→ Heavy construction despite softer migration outlooks—posing potential oversupply risk.

3. Q3 – Low Demand Potential, Low Supply

→ Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Las Vegas

→ Legacy markets with muted demographic and development momentum.

4. Q4 – High Demand Potential, Low Supply

→ Oklahoma City, Jacksonville, Memphis, Detroit, Providence

→ Undersupplied, high-demand markets well positioned for upward price pressure.

Key Insights

✅ Q4 metros offer the most compelling setup: strong demand potential, constrained pipeline, and high value growth outlook.
🏗️ Q2 markets are supply-heavy, but may not be aligned with forward-looking demand.
📉 Q3 metros are slower-moving, likely suited for long-term yield or preservation strategies.
📍 The quadrant map reveals asymmetric housing opportunities—and where fundamentals are best aligned for future growth.

Food for Thought

Supply and demand are rarely balanced. But when you find markets where migration, pipeline, and pricing all align—that’s where smart real estate strategy begins.

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